First Nations could help swing some Sask. ridings in federal election

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First Nations voters could determine a northern Saskatchewan riding in the upcoming federal election, slated for April 28.

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The demographic in Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River shows that First Nations people make up 67.6 per cent of eligible voters, according to data from the Assembly of First Nations (AFN) in a March 28 news release.

It’s among the highest proportions of First Nations voters for a riding anywhere in the country. And all three candidates on the riding’s federal ballot are Indigenous.

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Who are the Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River candidates?

Jim Lemaigre from the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) is a member of the Clearwater River Dene Nation and speaks fluent Dene, while the Liberal Party’s Buckley Belanger is Métis and can communicate in Cree.

Both could benefit from being able to campaign in their respective languages.

“That’s the real breakthrough these guys can do,” said Doug Cuthand, the Indigenous affairs columnist for the Saskatoon StarPhoenix and Regina Leader-Post. “Outsiders, they don’t speak the language. So when it comes to Indigenous people, (language is) the big plus.”

NDP candidate Doug Racine is said to be a descendent of the Red River Métis, although his campaign team says he does not speak an Indigenous language.

Having a slate full of Indigenous candidates in the region will likely mean that eligible voters are more politically active, says Danette Starblanket, an assistant professor at the University of Regina’s Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy.

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“(If) you put a First Nations candidate out there,” said Starblanket, “you’re gonna be running out of ballots.”

What’s changed?

Boundary changes to the southern part of Saskatchewan’s northernmost district will mean it no longer includes Meadow Lake or Prince Albert National Park.

Gary Vidal, who held the seat for CPC before the election was called, had a stronghold in Meadow Lake from previously serving as its mayor, Cuthand points out.

The redistribution may favour the Liberal Party since “the riding has lost some of its more Conservative components,” Daniel Westlake, an assistant professor of political studies at the University of Saskatchewan, told the Leader-Post in February.

What are the projections?

The riding of Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River is being closely watched as it could become the first Liberal seat in the province after six years of CPC holding on to all 14.

Projections from political forecasting website 338Canada, which bases its data on opinion polls, puts the Liberals in the lead with 58 per cent (plus or minus 14 per cent) as of Thursday, April 17. This is Belanger’s second time running for the federal seat. The site calculates his odds of winning if the election were held on April 17 at 99 per cent.

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The same poll projected the Conservative’s Lemaigre at 26 per cent (plus or minus 13 per cent), followed by the NDP’s Racine with 16 per cent (plus or minus 10 per cent).

If the updated boundaries were factored into election results from 2021, the Liberal Party would have finished first with 3,811 votes, according to Elections Canada. The data shows that the NDP would have come in second with 1,975 votes, followed by CPC with 1,938.

Sask.-wide impact of the Indigenous vote

The northern riding is one of 36 across the country identified by AFN as places where First Nations voters could determine the outcome of the election.

Four other Saskatchewan ridings were named in the report: Battlefords—Lloydminster—Meadow Lake (with 18.7 per cent of the voting population being First Nations), followed by the Prince Albert riding (17.9 per cent), Regina—Qu’Appelle (11.8 per cent) and Saskatoon West (8.3 per cent), according to AFN data.

Those numbers are welcome news to the Federation of Sovereign Indigenous Nations (FSIN), which represents 74 First Nations in the province.

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“The power of the First Nation vote cannot be overstated, particularly in Saskatchewan where several key ridings can be decisively influenced by First Nation voters,” FSIN Chief Bobby Cameron said in a news release on April 16.

Cameron encouraged First Nations people to vote and “swing these ridings” in the federal election. He advised them to vote for representatives who are “truly committed to reconciliation, inherent (rights) and treaty rights and addressing the pressing needs of our communities.”

Across the province, the level of political activity among First Nations people can depend on the history in that treaty territory and the level of involvement from the local tribal council, says Starblanket.

Those in urban ridings might feel “alienated from the mainstream” due to a lack of representation by the candidates, says Cuthand, which can disengage them from the voting process.

Regina—Qu’Appelle incumbent Andrew Scheer (CPC) received flack in 2019 after reports that he had not been seen campaigning on the 12 First Nations in his riding.

Elections Canada reported that on-reserve voting for the district fell by 27.2 percentage points between the 2019 and 2021 federal elections. Three other Saskatchewan ridings were among the list of five federal districts that saw on-reserve turnout drop by more than 20 percentage points.

— with files from Alec Salloum and the CBC.

nyking@postmedia.com

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